Explanations Are Not Evidence

One of the more persistent problems in transaction work is that too many people confuse explanations with evidence.

They are not the same.

An owner explains why he paid himself below market. A borrower explains why margins were weak. A broker explains why the business is worth more than the numbers suggest. An advisor explains why the financial statements do not tell the full story.

Very well. But explanations do not create value.

In a fair market value analysis, the question is not whether there is a story to tell. There is always a story. The question is whether the value conclusion remains supportable after the required normalization adjustments are made, the cash flow is examined honestly, and the asset support is tested rather than assumed.

That is where many deals begin to come apart. Because once the economics stop cooperating, people often reach for narrative. They become more expressive. More creative. More insistent. But the story does not improve the math. It only reveals how badly they need the math to improve.

I have seen this for years.

When the reported results are weak, when compensation has to be normalized upward, when capex is real, when free cash flow turns negative, the answer is not to become more eloquent. The answer is to confront what the business actually supports.

That is what discipline looks like. In serious valuation work, explanations may provide context. They do not provide support. And the minute people start treating them as though they do, they are no longer defending value. They are defending hope.