🧠 Sin Spotlight: Projections ≠ Valuation Basis

šŸ“‰ Projections are a tool—generally not a justification for 7a valuations.

The SBA favors valuation based on historical performance, not hypothetical growth.

But we’ve seen appraisals that:

  • Use unsupported forecasts to support value
  • Apply multiples to ā€œfuture EBITDAā€
  • Ignore risk adjustments

šŸ“Œ If the value is based on what the business might do or what the buyer hopes to to—it’s not FMV. It’s a bet.